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Journal of Refugee Studies 2006 19(4):453-470; doi:10.1093/refuge/fel022
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Journal of Refugee Studies Vol. 19, No. 4 © The Author [2006]. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org

Articles

Tools for Anticipating Asylum Denials: An Application to Afghan Refugees in Pakistan, 1997–2001

LESTER A. ZEAGER and JOHN H. P. WILLIAMS

Department of Economics, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC 27858 zeagerl{at}ecu.edu
Department of Political Science, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC 27858 williamsjoh{at}ecu.edu

The growing tendency toward non-compliance with international obligations to refugees requires UNHCR to make contingency plans for asylum denials. Making such plans calls for tools, such as game theory and confrontation analysis, that link non-compliance in refugee asylum with the configuration of interests for asylum and donor countries in a potential crisis. We illustrate such tools in a case study of Afghan refugees in Pakistan in 1997–2001, which generated asylum denials by Pakistan ranging from brief border closings to threats of mass refoulement, linked to the withholding of assistance by the United States and other donors. We also consider the prospects for using these tools to inform contingency planning for an impending crisis.

Key Words: Afghan refugees • asylum • game theory • theory of moves • confrontation analysis


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